The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League quarter-final between Aston Villa (England) and PSG (France) will take place on April 15 at Villa Park in Birmingham. The first match ended 3-1 in favor of PSG. Aston Villa vs. PSG: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Aston Villa
Unai Emery's side lost the first leg against PSG 1-3. The Birmingham side scored first (for the fourth consecutive match in the Champions League) but failed to maintain their lead, ending their three-match winning streak in the tournament. To advance to the next round, the club needs to win by at least three goals. Notably, Aston Villa won their last home Champions League match with such an advantage.
- At least three goals were scored in 5 of the last 6 matches involving the British side in the Champions League.
- The team has not lost at home in this tournament (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Aston Villa has conceded only once in a home Champions League game.
Predicted lineup for Aston Villa (4-5-1)
Emiliano Martinez – Ezri Konsa, Matty Cash, Lucas Digne, Pau Torres – John McGinn, Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers, Marco Asensio, Boubacar Kamara – Ollie Watkins.
PSG
The victory in the last match was PSG's seventh in the last eight Champions League encounters. In the current tournament, PSG has scored 28 goals, setting a new club record for goals in the Champions League. To reach the semi-finals, Luis Enrique's side can even afford to lose by a minimal margin. If the team loses by exactly two goals, extra time will be played. Notably, in the last four seasons across all European competitions, clubs with a two-goal advantage before the second leg have advanced in 35 out of 38 cases.
- The French side has scored at least two goals in 6 of their last 8 Champions League games.
- PSG is on a four-match winning streak away in this tournament.
- In their last six away matches in the Champions League, PSG has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for PSG (4-3-3)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Nuno Mendes, William Pacho, Marquinhos, Achraf Hakimi – Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Joao Neves – Desire Doue, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele.
Referee
Jose Maria Sanchez (Spain)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 36;
Average yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 11%.
Aston Villa vs. PSG: Match Prediction
The first match was dominated by PSG, but the British side managed to score on a counterattack. In the return leg, Birmingham will need to play much more aggressively to overcome the two-goal deficit. According to local press reports, Aston Villa will aim for an early goal, a strategy in which they have been quite successful.
Unai Emery's side has scored in the 3rd minute in three of their Champions League matches. Before the 15-minute mark, the club has scored four times. Only four teams have more goals in this period, and three of them have already exited the tournament.
PSG is heading to England with the intent to win. At least, that's what Luis Enrique stated, indicating that the French side does not intend to sit back and defend their lead. PSG scored three times against Birmingham, who spent most of the match defending. Now, the team will have much more space for attacks. In such a scenario, goals against Aston Villa could come much quicker, even if PSG concedes first.
My prediction: Goal before the 15th minute – Yes
